The chain behind the move

Stronger data than expected → higher rate expectations from the Federal Reserve → stronger real yields and dollar → pressure on gold

And usually the reverse. That is why gold can fall on a day people hear “inflation is high” — even though gold is called an inflation hedge. What moves it in the first minutes is what the Fed will do with rates, not inflation itself.

The number alone is not enough

Price does not move on the inflation number but on the gap between the actual figure and expectations. Inflation at 3% can lift gold if the market expected 3.3%, and sink it if the market expected 2.8%. So open the economic calendar and look at the “forecast” column before the release.

How much has gold actually moved?

We measured gold's move after each major release, using official release dates, in our Gold News Reaction Map:

A point here is one dollar of price, and the sample is 14 to 20 releases per event — enough to see the shape, not to promise a number. Releases such as ISM and jobless claims added almost nothing to the normal range.

Why we do not trade 30 minutes either side

• Size: the payrolls move averages over $24 in half an hour — two to three times a typical 15-minute stop.
• Spread: it widens at the moment of release, so a stop can be hit without the real price reaching it.
• Slippage: the stop fills at a worse price than you set, so you lose more than you calculated.
• Technical analysis pauses: chart levels mean little in the minutes when interest rates are being repriced.

Times to know (Jordan time)

Half an hour after the FOMC decision the press conference starts, and it often brings most of the move — which is what the numbers above show: 15.6 points in the first half hour, and 33.8 over the full hour.

Read next: How to choose a broker →