What it measures

For every release of ten US events — FOMC, FOMC minutes, CPI, NFP, PPI, PCE, retail sales, ISM manufacturing, ISM services and jobless claims — it records four things on the chart:

• First move: the size of the move in the first window after the release (30 minutes by default).
• Follow-through: the move over the longer window (60 minutes by default, capped at 90).
• Reversal rate: how often the second window moved against the first.
• Range expansion: the range after the release divided by the normal range at the same time of day on days without a listed release. ×1.0 means the event added nothing.

Why the dates matter

Release dates come from the official sources — the BLS archives for CPI, NFP and PPI, the BEA schedule for PCE, the Federal Reserve calendar for FOMC and minutes, the ISM calendar, and the ALFRED release history — not from estimates. Times are handled in New York time, so daylight-saving changes do not shift the window.

When two releases land at the same minute (CPI and claims often do), they are counted together as one cluster, so a claims number is never credited with a CPI move.

First results (XAUUSD, 30-minute chart)

On the 15-minute chart, PCE came out at ×1.4, while ISM (×0.8 and ×0.9) and jobless claims (×1.0) added almost nothing to the normal range. Those events are still listed, because “nothing happens” is a useful answer too.

How to read it: FOMC produces the largest and longest moves — most of it arrives after the first 30 minutes. NFP moves fast and rarely reverses. PPI is the smallest of the four and reverses most often.

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